Four Weeks Out

We're now four weeks away from Election Day. Each Monday from now until the election I'll be sharing the state of the presidential race and the Electoral College outlook.

It's amazing how much can change in a week. As the race stands now nationally, President Barack Obama holds a 1.1 point lead against Mitt Romney according to polling averages from Real Clear Politics. The 3-4 point lead Obama built after the Democratic National Convention and the weeks afterward seems to have slipped after the first presidential debate last week. It's also interesting to note that the tighter race appears to be the result of Romney gaining in national polls (presumably from undecided voters) rather than Obama falling. Obama's national polling average fell slightly from 49 to 48.3 over the last week. But, Romney's average jumped two full points from 45.2 to 47.2

Here is a look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today.

Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia are toss-ups.

Here is another look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today--without any toss-ups.

In this scenario, Obama is re-elected with an Electoral College victory of 294-244.

Here's what has changed: Colorado, Florida and North Carolina all went from Obama to Romney. Ohio and Virginia still give Obama a lead, but by a smaller margin. New Hampshire, which was listed as a toss-up last week, now holds an even bigger margin of victory for Obama to be on the cusp of a "Likely Obama" rating.

**The toss-up states of Colorado and Florida show an exact tie. In the Electoral College map with no toss-ups listed, they are shown as "Lean Romney" due to polling trends.