In each category, I've ranked each nominee from my favorite to least favorite.
Best Picture
As usual, there is a wide variety of films this year. It's always hard comparing the films because they're so different. This year was an interesting year for me. Usually the films I enjoy the most and think are the best are the ones I would want to watch over and over. 12 Years a Slave was the best film for me, but I don't know if I could watch it again. It's tough to sit through, but it's an important film. Based on a true story, it's a beautifully written tragic story. The performances by the actors are amazing, and the scenery is beautiful. I think it deserves to win. Her was the film the surprised me the most. It's a great portrayal of relationships. It's also a beautifully shot movie--I loved the futuristic aspect of the film. The Wolf of Wall Street is an important story for people to see in light of the financial crash in 2008. It's another film with great acting and a great script. I really enjoyed Dallas Buyers Club, Philomena and Nebraska. All three films made me laugh and cry. (I cried much more than laughed during Dallas Buyers Club.) The other three films on the list would not have been included if it were up to me. Captain Phillips is a good movie, and Tom Hanks was great in it, but it just wasn't as good as the others for me. American Hustle and Gravity are highly overrated in my opinion.
1.
12 Years a Slave
2.
Her
3.
The Wolf of Wall
Street
4.
Dallas Buyers
Club
5.
Philomena
6.
Nebraska
7.
Captain Phillips
8.
American Hustle
9.
Gravity
Prediction: 12 Years a Slave
The experts seem to be split on 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I feel like 12 Years a Slave will prevail. There's strong support for American Hustle as well. The way the Academy tallies votes for Best Picture, any of those three films could win.
Best Director
Martin Scorsese did a great job with The Wolf of Wall Street and deserves to win. I would also be thrilled if Steve McQueen won for 12 Years a Slave. As great as that movie was, there were some interesting directional choices that didn't quite work for me. Overall, it was good, but those few shots give the edge to Scorses for me.
1.
Martin
Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
2.
Steve
McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
3.
Alexander
Payne – Nebraska
4.
David
O. Russell – American Hustle
5.
Alfonso
Cuaron – Gravity
Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
I think Alfonso Cuaron has a strong lock on this category. There's a chance Steve McQueen could play spoiler with 12 Years a Slave, which I'm hoping for (since I don't think Scorsese has a chance).
Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor gives such an incredible performance in 12 Years a Slave. I think he deserves to win. I would be really happy for Leonardo DiCaprio if he won as well. He's an incredible actor, and this is his fourth Oscar nomination--and this year marks the 20th anniversary of his first Oscar nomination (Best Supporting Actor in What's Eating Gilbert Grape). Every man in this category was exceptional in my opinion. I thought Christian Bale was the best part of American Hustle. I was glad to see him included in this category.
1.
Chiwetel
Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
2.
Leonardo
DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
3.
Christian
Bale – American Hustle
4.
Matthew
McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
5.
Bruce
Dern – Nebraska
This seems to be one of the more fluid races of the season. Matthew McConaughey's great work in Dallas Buyers Club has already won him several awards, including a Golden Globe and a SAG award. I think it'll also earn him an Oscar. Don't count out Leonardo DiCaprio though. There's a late surge of support for him. On the other hand, Chiwetel Ejiofor, who was a frontrunner earlier in the awards season, seems to be fading.
Best Actress
There just isn't anyone that can do what Meryl Streep can do. I know she's not going to win, but let's be honest--she gave the best performance of the year. She was incredible in August: Osage County--a movie that didn't get enough love from the Academy. Cate Blanchett was really great in Blue Jasmine. She's such a great actress as well. I really think Emma Thompson should have been nominated. She would easily be third on this list. (Also, for anyone that thinks I'm too biased in favor of Meryl Streep, see my rankings for Best Supporting Actress, and for the record, I didn't rank her first in 2009.)
1.
Meryl
Streep – August: Osage County
2.
Cate
Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
3.
Judi
Dench – Philomena
4.
Sandra
Bullock – Gravity
5.
Amy
Adams - American Hustle
Prediction: Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
I'd be shocked if Cate Blanchett didn't win this race. Amy Adams is most likely to play spoiler, followed by Sandra Bullock.
Best Supporting
Actor
Jared Leto hasn't acted in six years. His comeback performance is incredible. Michael Fassbender is also amazing in 12 Years a Slave. The other performances aren't as powerful in my opinion.
1.
Jared
Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
2.
Michael
Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
3.
Barkhad
Abdi – Captain Phillips
4.
Jonah
Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
5.
Bradley
Cooper – American Hustle
Prediction: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
Of all four acting races, this one seems to be the one that is the most settled. Expect to hear Jared Leto's name called on Oscar night.
Best Supporting
Actress
Julia Roberts is my favorite actress. I've loved her for as long as I've been old enough to enjoy movies. She's great in August: Osage County. I'd love it if she won. However, Lupita Nyong'o's performance in 12 Years a Slave is nothing short of breathtaking and heartbreaking. She brings such depth to the role of Patsey. I think her performance was the best, and I'll be rooting for her. As an aside, I loved June Squibb in Nebraska. She was so funny. I'd love to see her in more roles.
1.
Lupita
Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
2.
Julia
Roberts – August: Osage County
3.
June
Squibb – Nebraska
4.
Jennifer
Lawrence – American Hustle
5.
Sally
Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Prediction: Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
This race is a close one between Lupita Nyong'o and Jennifer Lawrence. I think (and hope) Nyong'o will win.
Best Adapted
Screenplay
As a writer, I love the writing categories. These are all good screenplays. No disrespect to Billy Ray, but I'd be happy with any of the first four on this list winning. Captain Phillips just doesn't quite hold up to the others in my opinion. I really enjoyed Before Midnight and the two predecessors in the trilogy. It told an interesting story and I thought it provided thought provoking insight on life and relationships. I'm going with John Ridley's adaptation of 12 Years a Slave just because it's such a compelling story.
1.
John
Ridley – 12 Years a Slave
2.
Terrence
Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street
3.
Steve
Coogan, Jeff Pope – Philomena
4.
Richard
Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke – Before
Midnight
5.
Billy
Ray – Captain Phillips
Prediction: John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
The screenplay categories can often be more up in the air than other categories, but John Ridley seems to be a strong favorite here.
Best Original
Screenplay
Just like above--no disrespect to Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell--but I'd be happy with any of my top four winning this race. Nebraska was a clever, original story. Her was just above and beyond great for me. I was surprised actually--but it was incredibly well written. I'm really rooting for Spike Jonze.
1.
Spike
Jonze – Her
2.
Bob
Nelson – Nebraska
3.
Craig
Borten, Melisa Wallack – Dallas Buyers
Club
4.
Woody
Allen – Blue Jasmine
5.
Eric
Warren Singer, David O. Russell – American
Hustle
Prediction: Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell - American Hustle
This looks to be a close race between American Hustle and Her. I'm mostly picking American Hustle because I don't expect the film I want to win to actually win--plus the Academy really likes Russell and they love this film. With it likely getting shut out of the other big categories, I expect the Academy to throw a bone its way with this award.
So, there are my thoughts on the major categories. Agree? Disagree? What do you think? Leave a comment and let me know.
