The 87th annual Academy Awards are Sunday, February 22. I've been preparing by seeing each of the 17 films nominated in the major categories. Here are my picks for what I think is the best and should win along with my predictions for what will actually win.
Best Picture
- Boyhood
- The Theory of Everything
- The Imitation Game
- Selma
- Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
- Whiplash
- The Grand Budapest Hotel
- American Sniper
Looking back on the films, this year was a little lackluster to me. There's usually one or two films I really love. I enjoyed most of these movies, but nothing overwhelmed me. In the Best Picture race, Academy members must rank the nominees (as opposed to just voting for one as they do in the other categories.) I'm putting Boyhood first because I think overall it was the best made film of the group. I think there were great performances (particularly Ellar Coltrane and Patricia Arquette) and I really enjoyed the dialogue in the film. I know a lot of people think the movie was dragging and boring in parts, but I honestly feel like that was the point. It's meant to be a metaphor for growing up. How many times did you feel as a kid or a teenager that life just wasn't going anywhere? I felt like this was a unique take on the coming of age theme.
Ranking the movies is always difficult because of their diversity, and choosing a number two between The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game was tough. It's interesting to me that they both happen to be true stories of British men. Anyway, the former was just a better made film in my opinion.
A lot has been said and written about Selma. I think it's a good film that could've been better in places, but above all it's an important film and a story everyone should be familiar with if they don't know it already. I was particularly impressed with performances by David Oyelowo and Carmen Ejogo in the film.
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) was unique and interesting to me, but needed to be a little tighter to me. I would've been okay with just those five nominees. (I would've also thrown in Gone Girl and Into the Woods). Whiplash was a good movie, with great acting, but I just wouldn't call it Best Picture worthy.
As for The Grand Budapest Hotel and American Sniper, they just aren't my type of films. I can see the appeal and originality of Wes Anderson's style, but it's just not what I enjoy. I could probably write an entire post about American Sniper and the politics surrounding it, but that's for another time. Just taking it for what it's worth as a film, it was a mediocre war movie with decent acting.
Prediction: Boyhood
Part of me thinks this year could be leading to an upset. A win for Boyhood or Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) is what is expected. The guild awards point to the latter, while the BAFTAs suggest the former. Leading experts and notorious award prediction site Gold Derby are split 50/50 between the two. While Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) has gotten a lot of recent buzz and chatter, I just don't expect it to win. I would keep an eye on The Grand Budapest Hotel for an upset.
Best Director
- Richard Linklater - Boyhood
- Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game
- Alejandro González Iñárritu - Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
- Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher
I'm going with Richard Linklater's remarkable 12 year labor of love. The next two on my list were pretty strong as well. I don't really get the nomination for Bennett Miller. That was surprising. I would've rounded out the category with James Marsh for The Theory of Everything.
Prediction: Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Another race where Boyhood and Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) seem to be the frontrunners. But, again, don't discount Wes Anderson.
Best Actor
- Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
- Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
- Michael Keaton - Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
- Bradley Cooper - American Sniper
- Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher
I think these are all worthy performances even though I would have loved to see David Oyelowo honored for his performance as Martin Luther King, Jr. in Selma. Eddie Redmayne just rises above the competition for me. His incredible performance is moving and subtle. Benedict Cumberbatch is a very close second, and if I were playing favorites, I would say I want him to win. I'd be happy either way.
Prediction: Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
The dynamics and buzz surrounding this race really changed after Eddie Redmayne won the Screen Actors Guild award in late January. Michael Keaton went from the overwhelming frontrunner, to being a solid second. Redmayne seems poised to win on Sunday night.
Best Actress
- Julianne Moore - Still Alice
- Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
- Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
- Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night
- Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Julianne Moore's performance in Still Alice was magnificent. Rosamund Pike was also stellar and haunting in Gone Girl. By far the best two female performances of the year.
Prediction: Julianne Moore - Still Alice
This race pretty much looks like a lock for Julianne Moore. Despite four previous nominations, she has never won an Oscar. That should change Sunday night.
Best Supporting Actor
- Edward Norton - Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
- J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
- Robert Duvall - The Judge
- Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
- Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
I don't have too much to say about these performances. I thought Edward Norton and J.K. Simmons were both good in their respective roles. Robert Duvall and Mark Ruffalo were also good. Ethan Hawke's nomination seems a bit out of place to me, but I chalk it up to love for the movie.
Prediction: J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
This race seems to be a done deal as well. J.K. Simmons has swept the pre-Oscar awards and looks like a strong favorite to win the Oscar.
Best Supporting Actress
- Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
- Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
- Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
- Laura Dern - Wild
- Emma Stone - Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
So many women I just absolutely love in this category! Obviously I adore Meryl Streep, but I'm also a big fan of Laura Dern and Emma Stone--not to slight the other two ladies. It's hard to outdo Meryl Streep, and I just don't think anyone did in this category. Patricia Arquette comes in second for me. I enjoyed all of these performances and thought all five of these women did a great job. I think it's telling that it's a strong category when I had to put Emma Stone in fifth place, because she's great, and she did a wonderful job in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance). Honestly, these could be ranked in a different order on a different day for me--this was the toughest one for me.
Prediction: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Once again, as with the other acting categories, this seems to be a foregone conclusion. Expect Patricia Arquette to become an Oscar winner on Sunday evening.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Anthony McCarten - The Theory of Everything
- Graham Moore - The Imitation Game
- Damien Chazelle - Whiplash
- Paul Thomas Anderson - Inherent Vice
- Jason Hall - American Sniper
I would be super happy with The Theory of Everything or The Imitation Game winning this award. I thought Inherent Vice was a little dull, and American Sniper just wasn't my taste.
Prediction: Damien Chazelle - Whiplash
The screenplay races can be hard to predict. Most of the experts are predicting Graham Moore will win for The Imitation Game. However, there is strong support for Damien Chazelle's Whiplash. The Oscar prognosticators I trust the most, along with my gut instinct, tell me to go with Whiplash for the win. It will almost certainly be one of those two films.
Best Original Screenplay
- Richard Linklater - Boyhood
- Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinerlaris, Jr., Armando Bo - Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
- Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness - The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Dan Gilroy - Nightcrawler
- E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman - Foxcatcher
Boyhood was my favorite, so it gets my top pick. Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) is well written, too. I thought Nightcrawler was interesting and a fascinating idea for a movie. I was rooting for Gillian Flynn (Gone Girl) and one of my favorite writers, Nick Hornby (Wild).
Prediction: Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness - The Grand Budapest Hotel
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) could win this race and I really wouldn't consider it an upset, but it seems much more likely that the award will go to The Grand Budapest Hotel.
