1 Week Out

We are now 6 days away from Election Day. I did not get around to posting last week, but I did check the polls and make an Electoral College map as I've been doing each Monday. Last week's results were the worst so far for President Barack Obama, but still had him with a 277-261 win in the Electoral College.

National polls have been all over the place. The average tends to show Republican Mitt Romney with a slight lead--less than one point. However, when you look at the Electoral College, Obama still seems to have the advantage.

Here is a look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today. (Numbers are from Monday, October 29.)

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin are toss-ups.

Here is another look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today--without any toss-ups.

In this scenario, Obama is re-elected with an Electoral College victory of 303-235. This is the largest margin of victory he's had in the Electoral College since the first presidential debate.

Since the last blog on October 15, the only state that has flipped in Colorado. It was in the Romney column then and is now in the Obama column. Colorado is currently an exact tie, but is showing movement towards Obama.

If I were working for the Obama campaign, I would be cautiously optimistic heading into the final week of campaigning. Polling and momentum have been pretty steady lately and the stage seems to be set for Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia to be the closest three swing states this cycle. If conventional wisdom and polling is accurate in the states that are leaning one way or another, Obama could lose all three of those swing states and still be re-elected with a 277-261 win in the Electoral College.

Next week I plan to show a polling update and offer my thoughts on what I predict will happen.

Other Notable Races

With Election Day just around the corner, much of the focus is on the presidential race. Without question it's the biggest race on the ballot throughout the country. But, there are many, many other important races and ballot measures in various states. This is a look at some of the most important races around the country and races I'll be following closely for various reasons on November 6.

Alabama

Supreme Court Chief Justice: Bob Vance (D) vs. Roy Moore (R)
Roy Moore should be a familiar name to Alabamians. He was elected Supreme Court Chief Justice in 2000. He held that position until he was removed from office in November 2003 for defying a court order to remove a Ten Commandments monument he had placed in the central rotunda of the state judicial building. Moore also ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for governor in 2006 and 2010.

Bob Vance has been a Jefferson County trial judge for the last 10 years. He became the Democratic nominee after the Alabama Democratic Party disqualified Harry Lyon--the only candidate to qualify initially. (That's another story--Lyon has a criminal past and is on par with Moore in his conservative viewpoints.)

This race is important for many reasons. It's not just that Moore doesn't respect the rule of law and chooses to display his religion publicly. He is a threat to all Alabamians' civil liberties. He once ruled in favor of granting custody to an abusive father rather than the child's lesbian mother and wrote in his opinion that, "Homosexual behavior is a ground for divorce, an act of sexual misconduct punishable as a crime in Alabama, a crime against nature, an inherent evil, and an act so heinous that it defies one's ability to describe it. That is enough under the law to allow a court to consider such activity harmful to a child. To declare that homosexuality is harmful is not to make new law but to reaffirm the old; to say that it is not harmful is to experiment with people's lives, particularly the lives of children."

It should also be noted that Moore's biggest contributor to his campaign is Michael Peroutka who is active in the League of the South, an organization designated as a Neo-Confederate hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center.

Public Service Commission President: Lucy Baxley (D) vs. Twinkle Cavanagh (R)
Lucy Baxley is currently the only Democrat elected statewide in Alabama. The Republican Party is fighting hard to defeat her in this race because they hope to hold all 30+ statewide elected offices. The PSC is in charge of regulating utility companies that provide gas, water, communications and trucking and air carriers.

Twinkle Cavanagh is a frequent candidate who was defeated by Baxley in 2008. She currently serves as a PSC commissioner.

This race is important symbolically because Democrats need to maintain a presence in Alabama. But, citizens of Alabama also need someone like Baxley who will look out for their interests rather than someone trying to advance their political career.

Arizona

U.S. Senate: Richard Carmona (D) vs. Jeff Flake (R)
Three-term Sen. Jon Kyl (R) is retiring leaving an open seat. Richard Carmona is a former U.S. Surgeon General (2002-2006). Jeff Flake is a six-term congressman currently representing Arizona's sixth congressional district.

Arizona has trended Republican in recent years and this is a race that was not expected to be competitive. However, recent polls show this race tightening and in some instances Carmona has held a slight lead. There are many important U.S. Senate races this year because the current caucus membership margins is small--Democrats hold 53 seats and Republicans hold 47. Just a few seat changes could shift control of the Senate.

U.S. House of Representatives, District 9: Kyrsten Sinema (D) vs. Vernon Parker (R)
Based on the 2010 Census, Arizona gained a congressional district this year, and this is it. Kyrsten Sinema is a social worker and former state representative and state senator. Vernon Parker served as mayor of Paradise Valley from 2008-2010 and served in the administrations of both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

If elected, Sinema would be the first openly bisexual member of Congress.

California

U.S. House of Representatives, District 41: Mark Takano (D) vs. John Tavaglione (R)
Redistricting created several seats in California without an incumbent, including this one. Mark Takano serves as a Riverside Community College Board Trustee and previously ran for the U.S. House in 1992 and 1994. John Tavagkione is a Riverside County Supervisor and previously served on the city council.

If elected, Takano would be the first openly gay Asian-American in Congress and the first non-white openly gay member of Congress.

Connecticut

U.S. Senate: Chris Murphy (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R)
Four-term Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) is retiring leaving an open seat. Chris Murphy is a three-term congressman currently representing Connecticut's fifth congressional district. Linda McMahon is the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment and served on the Connecticut Board of Education from 2009-2010. She also ran for Connecticut's other Senate seat in 2010 losing to Richard Blumenthal.

This is another race that could determine which party controls the Senate. Murphy has a strong progressive record particularly on environmental and LGBT issues. He was also a strong proponent of the public option during the health care reform debate.

Florida

U.S. Senate: Bill Nelson (D) vs. Connie Mack IV (R)
Sen. Bill Nelson is seeking a third term. Connie Mack IV is a four-term congressman currently representing Florida's 14th congressional district. His father held this Senate seat from 1989-2001.

Nelson has held a fairly firm lead, but because of Florida's swing state status in the presidential race, the top of the ticket could influence the outcome of this race.

U.S. House of Representatives, District 18: Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Allen West (R)
Patrick Murphy is Vice President of Coastal Environmental Services, a company that specializes in disaster relief and environmental cleanup. Allen West is a freshman congressman currently representing Florida's 22nd congressional district. Due to redistricting he is seeking re-election to Congress in the 18th congressional district.

West, a Tea Party member, has one of the most conservative voting records in Congress. He has repeatedly made outlandish and offensive statements, including accusing the Congressional Progressive Caucus members of being Communists. Murphy is running on a progressive platform including supporting LGBT rights and polling has shown he has a good chance of beating West next month.

Idaho

U.S. House of Representatives, District 2: Nicole LeFavour (D) vs. Mike Simpson (R)
Nicole LeFavour is currently an Idaho state senator. Mike Simpson is seeking an eight term in Congress.

LeFavour is Idaho's first openly gay lawmaker. Simpson is likely to win re-election, but LeFavour's candidacy has generated some national interest.

Illinois

U.S. House of Representatives, District 8: Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Joe Walsh (R)
Tammy Duckworth is a disabled Iraq War veteran who served in the Obama administration as an assistant Veterans Affairs secretary. She also ran for Congress in 2006. Joe Walsh is seeking a second term in Congress.

Walsh, a Tea Party member, is another Republican incumbent who has found himself in the spotlight for making inflammatory statements including disparaging remarks about Duckworth's military service and injuries sustained in Iraq. Duckworth has significantly out-raised Walsh and has been polling ahead of him recently.

Indiana

U.S. Senate: Joe Donnelly (D) vs. Richard Mourdock (R)
Six-term Sen. Dick Lugar (R) was defeated by Richard Mourdock in the Republican primary. Joe Donnelly is a three-term congressman currently representing Indiana's second congressional district. Mourdock is currently in the middle of his second term as Indiana state treasurer.

Even though Indiana is a reliably conservative state, it has elected its share of Democrats. This race was not expected to be competitive until Lugar was defeated in the primary. Since then, polls have shown Donnelly and Mourdock locked in a close race.

Iowa

U.S. House of Representatives, District 3: Leonard Boswell (D) vs. Tom Latham (R)
Based on the 2010 Census, Iowa lost a congressional district this year forcing two incumbents to face each other. Leonard Boswell has represented Iowa's third congressional district since 1997. Tom Latham is a nine-term congressman currently representing Iowa's fourth congressional district.

This race is considered a bellwether race for control of the House.

U.S. House of Representatives, District 4: Christie Vilsak (D) vs. Steve King (R)
Christie Vilsak is a literacy advocate, former teacher and former first lady of Iowa. Steve King is a five-term congressman currently representing Iowa's fifth congressional district. Due to redistricting he is seeking re-election to Congress in the 4th congressional district.

King is a staunch conservative with a history of making offensive remarks. Vilsak is a popular figure throughout Iowa and polls have shown a close race.

Maine

U.S. Senate: Cynthia Dill (D) vs. Charlie Summers (R) vs. Angus King (I)
Three-term Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) is retiring leaving an open seat. Cynthia Dill is Maine state senator. Charlie Summers is currently Maine's secretary of state. Angus King served as Maine's governor from 1995-2003.

Early polling showed King solidly defeating both Dill and Summers. King has not stated which party he would caucus with if elected, so both national Democrats and Republicans have been leery to support him. However, Maine voters across the board have supported him. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sees this race as a chance to pick-up a seat, but have yet to endorse Dill or King.

Question 1: Do you want to allow the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples?
Ballot measures throughout the United States have not succeeded in advancing marriage equality thus far. However, in recent years, polls have shown a strong surge in support for marriage equality. Maine is one of four states with marriage equality on the ballot this year, and supporters are optimistic about their chances.

Maryland

Question 6: Civil Marriage Protection Act
Maryland is another state with marriage equality on the ballot. Supporters are optimistic of their chances.

Massachusetts

U.S. Senate: Elizabeth Warren (D) vs. Scott Brown (R)
Elizabeth Warren is an attorney, law school professor and consumer advocate. She served as a special advisor to President Obama and helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Scott Brown has is seeking his first full term to the Senate. After Sen. Edward Kennedy died, Brown won a special election in January 2010 to serve the rest of Kennedy's term.

Brown has tried to cultivate an image as a moderate and has bucked his party at times, but is still quite conservative. In a recent debate he named Antonin Scalia as one of his model Supreme Court justices. Warren is a progressive hero and won a record amount of delegates at the Massachusetts state Democratic convention when she was nominated. This is another race that has been close for months. Warren has recently opened up a small lead in polls.

U.S. House of Representatives, District 6: John Tierney (D) vs. Richard Tisei (R)
John Tierney is running for a ninth term in Congress. Richard Tisei was the Republican Party's nominee for Lieutenant Governor in Massachusetts in 2010. He served in the State House from 1985-1991 and in the State Senate from 1991-2011. He was the State Senate Minority Leader from 2007-2011.

This district is Massachusetts' least Democratic leaning district, so Republicans are trying hard to win this seat by tying Tierney's wife's legal troubles to Tierney himself even though he has not been implicated in any way. This race has also garnered attention because Tisei is the only openly gay Republican candidate for Congress this election cycle. Other than his mostly moderate stance on LGBT issues, Tisei has a fairly conservative record. Tierney has been a reliable progressive in Congress including being a strong LGBT ally.

Minnesota

U.S. House of Representatives, District 6: Jim Graves (D) vs. Michele Bachmann (R)
Jim Graves is a hotel/resort chain CEO. Michele Bachmann is seeking a fourth term in Congress. She also unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for president this year.

Bachmann's run for president has brought her more national notoriety--and that has not been good for her. She's been targeted since she was first elected because of her extreme far-right ideology, but after gaining national prominence this year, Democrats have an even better shot at beating her. Polls show a tight race.

Constitutional Amendment One: Limiting the status of marriage to opposite sex couples.
Same-sex marriage is already illegal in Minnesota, but opponents of marriage equality are trying to write discrimination against same-sex couples into the state constitution. Of all four states with marriage equality on the ballot, Minnesota appears to be the closest race. If marriage equality advocates defeat this amendment, it should be a good night throughout the country for LGBT rights.

Missouri

U.S. Senate: Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Todd Akin (R)
Claire McCaskill is seeking a second term in the Senate. Todd Akin is a six-term congressman currently representing Missouri's second congressional district.

Missouri has trended Republican in recent years and McCaskill's popularity has waned in the last couple of years as well. Early on Republicans saw this seat as a top pick-up opportunity. Democrats' luck changed when Republicans nominated Akin who appeared to be the weakest Republican candidate in the general election. Things continued to get better for Democrats once Akin made his infamous "legitimate rape" comments earlier this year. However, polls still show a close race.

Montana

Governor: Steve Bullock (D) vs. Rick Hill (R)
Two-term Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is term limited. Steve Bullock is nearing the end of his first term as Montana attorney general. Rick Hill represented Montana's at-large district in Congress from 1997-2001.

Polling has been minimal in this race, but the last two polls both showed a slim lead for Bullock. Republicans are hoping for a pick-up opportunity because of the state's Republican tilt.

U.S. Senate: Jon Tester (D) vs. Denny Rehberg (R)
Jon Tester is seeking a second term in the Senate. Denny Rehberg is a six-term congressman currently representing Montana's at-large congressional district.

Tester has tried to keep a moderate voting record to appeal to his conservative home-base in Montana, but has taken a few surprisingly progressive stands too. Most polls show Rehberg with a slight lead. Republicans view this seat as one of their top pick-up opportunities.

Nebraska

U.S. Senate: Bob Kerrey (D) vs. Deb Fischer (R)
Two-term Sen. Ben Nelson (D) is retiring. Bob Kerrey previously held this Senate seat from 1989-2001 and served as Nebraska's governor from 1983-1987. Deb Fischer has served in the state legislature since 2005.

Democrats got their top recruit by convincing Kerrey to come back to Nebraska. After he finished his second Senate term, he moved to New York City to serve as president of the New School. Republicans have tried to make his time in NYC an issue. Kerrey is an economic moderate, but a social progressive. He has been a strong LGBT ally (including being one of only 14 senators to vote against the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996) especially considering the conservative tilt of Nebraska voters.

Fischer has maintained a solid lead throughout the race.

Nevada

U.S. Senate: Shelley Berkley (D) vs. Dean Heller (R)
Shelley Berkley is a seven-term congresswoman currently representing Nevada's first congressional district. Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate after Sen. John Ensign (R) resigned in May 2011.

Nevada is a swing state and is always competitive in the presidential race and in statewide races. Heller holds only a slight lead despite Berkley being investigated for using her position in Congress to benefit her husband's business interests. The Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has named her one of the Most Corrupt Members of Congress. This race is still considered a chance for Democrats to gain a Senate seat.

New Hampshire

Governor: Maggie Hassan (D) vs. Ovide Lamontagne (R)
Four-term Gov. John Lynch (D) declined to seek re-election leaving an open seat. Maggie Hassan served in the New Hampshire state senate from 2005-2010 including two years as majority leader. Ovide Lamontagne is the former chairman of the New Hampshire state board of education.

The 2010 gubernatorial elections resulted in several Republican gains. After the election, only two Democratic women held governorships throughout the country--Christine Gregoire in Washington and Bev Perdue in North Carolina. Neither one of those women are running for re-election. This race is important because, if elected, Hassan would be the only Democratic female governor in the country. It is also one of only a few competitive gubernatorial races this cycle.

New York

U.S. House of Representatives, District 18: Sean Patrick Maloney (D) vs. Nan Hayworth (R)
Sean Patrick Maloney is an attorney who served in Bill Clinton's administration and Eliot Spitzer's administration while he was New York governor. He also ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for New York attorney general in 2006. Nan Hayworth is a freshman congresswoman currently representing New York's 19th congressional district. Due to redistricting she is seeking re-election to Congress in the 18th congressional district.

Maloney is seeking to becoming the first openly gay member of Congress from New York. Redistricting has made this district more Democratic and polls have shown Maloney and Hayworth locked in a close race.

North Dakota

U.S. Senate: Heidi Heitkamp (D) vs. Rick Berg (R)
Sen. Kent Conrad (D) is retiring after 26 years in the Senate. Heidi Heitkamp is an attorney who served as North Dakota's Tax Commissioner from 1986-1992 and Attorney General from 1992-2000. She was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2000. Rick Berg is a freshman congressman currently representing North Dakota's at-large district.

When Conrad announced he was retiring national Republicans rejoiced and saw an opportunity for a pick-up. Berg holds a slight lead in polls, but Heitkamp is a popular figure in the state and her moderate record has helped her stay competitive.

Ohio

U.S. Senate: Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Josh Mandel (R)
Sherrod Brown is seeking a second term in the Senate. Josh Mandel is currently Ohio's state treasurer.

Despite Ohio's status as a swing state, Brown has a solidly liberal voting record. He is a reliable progressive. Mandel is severely conservative and falsely accused his opponent in the state treasurer's race of being a Muslim to turn voters against him. Brown has been able to maintain a decent lead, but this race remains one to watch because of Ohio's swing state status.

Rhode Island

U.S. House of Representatives, District 1: David Cicilline (D) vs. Brendan Doherty (R)
David Cicilline is a freshman congressman seeking re-election. Brendan Doherty is a retired state police colonel.

Cicilline is one of only four openly gay members of Congress. His re-election prospects dimmed in light of revelations about financial trouble in Providence during his tenure as mayor. His primary challenger was unable to gain any traction and because of the district's Democratic tilt it seems unlikely that Doherty will be able to gain traction either.

Utah

U.S. House of Representatives, District 4: Jim Matheson (D) vs. Mia Love (R)
Jim Matheson is a six-term congressman currently representing Utah's second congressional district. Due to redistricting he is seeking re-election in the fourth congressional district. Mia Love has served as mayor of Saratoga Springs, Utah since January 2010.

Utah is one of the most, if not the single most, conservative state in the country. Each congressional district is solidly Republican, but Matheson has managed to keep his seat by maintaining a moderate to conservative voting record. Republicans always go after Matheson and this year's recruit is a young African-American female. Love has advocated eliminating free school lunches for children in poverty and eliminating special education funding in public schools. She has vowed to join the Congressional Black Caucus to, "try to take that thing apart from the inside out." Her reasoning is that, "they sit there and ignite emotions and ignite racism when there isn’t. They use their positions to instill fear. Hope and change is turned into fear and blame. Fear that everybody is going to lose everything and blaming Congress for everything instead of taking responsibility."

Virginia

U.S. Senate: Tim Kaine (D) vs. George Allen (R)
One-term Sen. Jim Webb (D) decided not to seek re-election. Tim Kaine served as governor of Virginia from 2006-2010 and was chairman of the Democratic Party from 2009-2011. George Allen was governor of Virginia from 1994-1998. He held this Senate seat from 2001-2007 until being defeated by Webb is a close race.

This race has been one of the most closely watched races nationally since both men declared their intentions to run. They prominent nationally and the race has been neck and neck for months. In recent weeks Kaine has began to build a lead. Many pundits expect this to be the closest Senate race this year.

Washington

Governor: Jay Inslee (D) vs. Rob McKenna (R)
Two-term Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) declined to run for a third term leaving an open seat. Jay Inslee served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1993-1995 and 1999 to earlier this year when he resigned to focus on his gubernatorial campaign. Rob McKenna is nearing the end of his second term as Washington's attorney general.

Gubernatorial races in Washington have been notoriously close over the last few election cycles. Inslee had trouble connecting with voters until recently when he opened up a small lead.

Referendum 74: "The legislature passed Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6239 concerning marriage for same-sex couples, modified domestic-partnership law, and religious freedom, and voters have filed a sufficient referendum petition on this bill. This bill would allow same-sex couples to marry, preserve domestic partnerships only for seniors, and preserve the right of clergy or religious organizations to refuse to perform, recognize, or accommodate any marriage ceremony."

This is the fourth state with marriage equality on the ballot. Supporters are also optimistic about their chances in Washington.

3 Weeks Out

We're 22 days away from Election Day--just over three weeks. Each Monday I'm posting on the state of the presidential race and the Electoral College outlook.

Republican Mitt Romney saw a decent bump after the first presidential debate on October 3. As of today, nationally President Barack Obama (the Democratic candidate) and Mitt Romney are tied. They're both polling at 47.3 according to polling averages from Real Clear Politics, which is a decline of a full point for Obama and a razor thin rise for Romney over the last week.

Last week Romney held a steady one point lead or above in the average of polls. The race appears to have shifted back slightly towards Obama over the weekend. Romney was up by as much as 1.8 points midweek last week, but that lead has now evaporated.

Here is a look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today.

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin are toss-ups.

Here is another look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today--without any toss-ups.

In this scenario, Obama is elected with an Electoral College victory of 294-244.

Here's what has changed: With polls tightening in several swing states, there are many more toss-up states than in the last two weeks. But, Obama still holds a small lead in all except Colorado and Florida. Obama's lead shrunk over the last week in several states, but the predicted outcome has not changed overall.

Four Weeks Out

We're now four weeks away from Election Day. Each Monday from now until the election I'll be sharing the state of the presidential race and the Electoral College outlook.

It's amazing how much can change in a week. As the race stands now nationally, President Barack Obama holds a 1.1 point lead against Mitt Romney according to polling averages from Real Clear Politics. The 3-4 point lead Obama built after the Democratic National Convention and the weeks afterward seems to have slipped after the first presidential debate last week. It's also interesting to note that the tighter race appears to be the result of Romney gaining in national polls (presumably from undecided voters) rather than Obama falling. Obama's national polling average fell slightly from 49 to 48.3 over the last week. But, Romney's average jumped two full points from 45.2 to 47.2

Here is a look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today.

Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia are toss-ups.

Here is another look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today--without any toss-ups.

In this scenario, Obama is re-elected with an Electoral College victory of 294-244.

Here's what has changed: Colorado, Florida and North Carolina all went from Obama to Romney. Ohio and Virginia still give Obama a lead, but by a smaller margin. New Hampshire, which was listed as a toss-up last week, now holds an even bigger margin of victory for Obama to be on the cusp of a "Likely Obama" rating.

**The toss-up states of Colorado and Florida show an exact tie. In the Electoral College map with no toss-ups listed, they are shown as "Lean Romney" due to polling trends.

Five Weeks Out

We're five weeks away from Election Day. Every Monday from now until the election, I will be sharing the state of the race and the Electoral College outlook.

As the race stands now nationally, President Barack Obama holds a 3.8 point lead against Mitt Romney according to polling averages from Real Clear Politics. Here is a look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held now.

Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina are toss-ups. (More on each state classification below.) Here is another look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if there election were held now--without any toss-ups.

In this scenario, Obama is re-elected in an Electoral College landslide 347-191. (In 2008, Obama beat Sen. John McCain by a margin of 365-173.)

Here's a breakdown of each rating--

Dark Blue/Dark Red: Safe Obama/Safe Romney - These races are a foregone conclusion. The candidates should win these races by a wide margin.

Blue/Red: Likely Obama/Likely Romney - These races show a pretty solid lead for one candidate or the other. It's not out of the realm of possibility for the other candidate to win in these states, but it's unlikely. (*Also included in the "likely" states are those with insufficient polling data. States that are not typically competitive often are not polled by pollsters. But, because of historical data, demographics, etc. experts can predict which way these states will sway. A list of these states can be found below.)

Light Blue/Light Red: Lean Obama/Lean Romney - These races show a lead for one candidate or another typically just outside the margin of error.  It's a slight lead, but enough to not be considered a toss-up. Most of these states are still considered pretty competitive and have the potential to be swayed in the opposite direction.

Gray: Toss-up - These states show a tie or a statistically insignificant margin of victory for one candidate or another. These races are currently the most competitive states.

*States with insufficient polling data: AL, AK, AR, DE, DC, HI, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, MS, NE, ND, OK, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, WY

**The three toss-up states of Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina all currently show President Obama with a slight lead, so they are shown as "Lean Obama" in the map with no toss-ups.