In each category, I've ranked each nominee from my favorite to least favorite.
Best Picture
It's always hard to rank the films and compare them because they're so different. I would say I loved the first four films on my list. I really liked Zero Dark Thirty as well. If I were making this category on my own, I wouldn't have had more than five nominees (unless I added something that wasn't nominated). Life of Pi was pretty good, but when I think of it in terms of the others in this category, it just wasn't as good for me. I can't see myself ever wanting to watch Beasts, Amour or Django ever again.
For me, Lincoln is the stand out film of the group for a few reasons. It's a gripping story and I love that it focuses on such a specific time period in President Abraham Lincoln's life. It would be hard to make a movie about his entire life more than likely because there is so much to him as a person. I felt that the legislation and topics covered in this movie were compelling. The acting in this movie is superb and I felt like the writing was exceptional as well.
Argo is incredible as well. Another well written story and good acting. Les Mis is just an epic production. It's a touching story and the acting and singing are wonderful. I'm also a big fan of Silver Linings Playbook and I think in any other year it would be higher on my list.
- Lincoln
- Argo
- Les Miserables
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Life of Pi
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Amour
- Django Unchained
It looks like Ben Affleck's snub in the directing category (more on that later) prompted a big backlash and surge of support for Argo. It has been pretty dominant throughout the awards season, and I expect it to win. Lincoln appears to have the second best shot to win.
Best Director
Out of the nominees, I think Spielberg's directing in Lincoln is the best. David O. Russell and Ang Lee did great work as well. I would round out this category with Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow for Argo and Zero Dark Thirty. In my opinion, those films are much better directed than Beasts or Amour.
- Lincoln - Steven Spielberg
- Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell
- Life of Pi - Ang Lee
- Beasts of the Southern Wild - Benh Zeitlin
- Amour - Michael Haneke
There seems to be the thinking that Spielberg may be "too big" for this category by some experts. It's sort of the Meryl Streep affect. People assume you have won the award so many times you don't need another one--even if you are the best in the field. (He has seven nominations and two wins, neither of which are a record for what it's worth.) I still think he's the favorite to win. But, this category is a wildcard. I wouldn't be too surprised if Russell or Lee won.
Best Actor
Great performances by everyone in this category! I just think Daniel Day-Lewis was superior. His performance was perfect. It would be really cool to see a win by Bradley Cooper or Hugh Jackman though. I'm a fan of both of those actors and they were great in their roles this year.
- Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
- Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
- Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
- Denzel Washington - Flight
- Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
This is the category I'm most confident in predicting. I would be shocked if anyone other than Daniel Day-Lewis won.
Best Actress
I had to think about this category for a while. The women are usually hardest for me to rank, because I usually love them all. Once again, I think everyone in this category did a great job. But, if I had to pick who I thought gave the best performance, I'd go with Emmanuelle Riva.
- Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
- Naomi Watts - The Impossible
- Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
- Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
- Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
This category seems to be locked up by Jennifer Lawrence. It's looked like her toughest competition would be from Jessica Chastain, but there seems to be a late surge of support for Emmanuelle Riva, especially after her BAFTA win. I can honestly say I'd be happy with any of those wins, but I'd put my money on Lawrence.
Best Supporting Actor
Another really strong category in my opinion. Once again it came down to me picking the best, and I just don't think anyone did as well as Tommy Lee Jones did in Lincoln. He was exceptional in the role.
- Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
- Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
- Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
- Alan Arkin - Argo
- Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Fun fact--all five of these men are Oscar winners. This category seems to be the most fluid and most experts are split on Tommy Lee Jones and Robert De Niro. I'm predicting Tommy Lee Jones based on the way the awards season has gone so far, but a win by De Niro or Christoph Waltz would not surprise me.
Best Supporting Actress
For me to rank Sally Field number two in any category has to mean whoever is above her did something extraordinary, and in my opinion Anne Hathaway was extraordinary in Les Mis. Field was also incredible, as was Helen Hunt. I thought Jacki Weaver did a great job too. I'm an Amy Adams fan, but this wasn't her best role in my opinion.
- Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
- Sally Field - Lincoln
- Helen Hunt - The Sessions
- Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
- Amy Adams - The Master
I think Anne Hathaway has this race locked up as well and I'll be very excited when she wins. Field and Hunt, both previous Oscar winners, could surprise though.
Best Adapted Screenplay
This was a tough category to rank as well. (I wish I had read the original of each of these adaptions, but unfortunately I haven't yet.) I'm giving the edge to Lincoln just because it was so exceptional. Silver Linings Playbook and Argo are really well written too.
- Lincoln - Tony Kushner
- Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell
- Argo - Chris Terrio
- Life of Pi - David Magee
- Beasts of the Southern Wild - Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
Argo seems pretty solid in this category. Lincoln and Playbook seem to be second and third in terms of chances to win.
Best Original Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty was my favorite out of these movies and I think it was the best written script. Flight was an interesting story too. I didn't particularly care for the others. In terms of writing, Amour did at least have some emotional dialogue and scenes.
- Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal
- Flight - John Gatins
- Amour - Michael Haneke
- Django Unchained - Quentin Tarantino
- Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
This category seems to be one of the most up in the air. I'm thinking it's going to come down to Django and Zero with Amour being the dark horse that could potentially sneak in and win.
I also want to plug the movie The Perks of Being a Wallflower in this post. It had some Oscar buzz mostly for it's writing. It was nominated for a Writer's Guild of America award for Best Adapted Screenplay. I definitely think it should have been nominated for an Oscar in place of Beasts. I loved everything about this movie though. I'd also have nominated it for Best Picture and could easily see Logan Lerman, Emma Watson and Ezra Miller getting acting nominations.
So, there are my thoughts on the major categories. Agree? Disagree? What do you think? Leave a comment and let me know.