It's finally Election Day! I hope that you've done your research and voted. If not, you have a little bit of time left before polls close.
I've been obsessively watching polls for the last year and I'm going to do my best attempt and making a prediction. Here we go...
I predict President Barack Obama will win re-election with a 303-235 victory in the Electoral College.
KEY: (Blue = Obama / Red = Romney)
Light Blue/Red = Candidate will win by less than 5 points.
Blue/Red = Candidate will win by 5-10 points.
Dark Blue/Red = Candidate will win by more than 10 points.
Other Predictions
Nate Silver of the New York Times blog FiveThirtyEight.com has Obama winning 313-225. Silver bases his results on math statistics so the number reflects an "in-between" count of Obama either winning 303 or 332 electoral votes depending on whether or not he carries the state of Florida. Silver has Florida as an exact tie, but gives Obama a very slim edge.
HuffingtonPost has Obama winning 277-191 and still has Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia as toss-up states. Without toss-up states, they have Obama with a 303-235 lead.
RealClearPolitics has Obama winning with a 303-235 lead.
Wrap-Up and Other Thoughts
A consensus among most pundits appears to be that Obama will win, but they vary on which states he will carry. The states in question are Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire and Virgina--all of which Obama could lose and still win. The tally in the Electoral College, depending on which of these states Obama does carry, would be between 277-258 and 332-203.
These are the top 10 states, in order, that I think will be the closest:
1. Florida
2. Virginia
3. Colorado
4. North Carolina
5. New Hampshire
6. Ohio
7. Iowa
8. Nevada
9. Arizona
10. Wisconsin
I've got my fingers crossed that the polls and my predictions turn out correctly!
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