3 Weeks Out

We're 22 days away from Election Day--just over three weeks. Each Monday I'm posting on the state of the presidential race and the Electoral College outlook.

Republican Mitt Romney saw a decent bump after the first presidential debate on October 3. As of today, nationally President Barack Obama (the Democratic candidate) and Mitt Romney are tied. They're both polling at 47.3 according to polling averages from Real Clear Politics, which is a decline of a full point for Obama and a razor thin rise for Romney over the last week.

Last week Romney held a steady one point lead or above in the average of polls. The race appears to have shifted back slightly towards Obama over the weekend. Romney was up by as much as 1.8 points midweek last week, but that lead has now evaporated.

Here is a look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today.

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin are toss-ups.

Here is another look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today--without any toss-ups.

In this scenario, Obama is elected with an Electoral College victory of 294-244.

Here's what has changed: With polls tightening in several swing states, there are many more toss-up states than in the last two weeks. But, Obama still holds a small lead in all except Colorado and Florida. Obama's lead shrunk over the last week in several states, but the predicted outcome has not changed overall.