1 Week Out

We are now 6 days away from Election Day. I did not get around to posting last week, but I did check the polls and make an Electoral College map as I've been doing each Monday. Last week's results were the worst so far for President Barack Obama, but still had him with a 277-261 win in the Electoral College.

National polls have been all over the place. The average tends to show Republican Mitt Romney with a slight lead--less than one point. However, when you look at the Electoral College, Obama still seems to have the advantage.

Here is a look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today. (Numbers are from Monday, October 29.)

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin are toss-ups.

Here is another look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held today--without any toss-ups.

In this scenario, Obama is re-elected with an Electoral College victory of 303-235. This is the largest margin of victory he's had in the Electoral College since the first presidential debate.

Since the last blog on October 15, the only state that has flipped in Colorado. It was in the Romney column then and is now in the Obama column. Colorado is currently an exact tie, but is showing movement towards Obama.

If I were working for the Obama campaign, I would be cautiously optimistic heading into the final week of campaigning. Polling and momentum have been pretty steady lately and the stage seems to be set for Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia to be the closest three swing states this cycle. If conventional wisdom and polling is accurate in the states that are leaning one way or another, Obama could lose all three of those swing states and still be re-elected with a 277-261 win in the Electoral College.

Next week I plan to show a polling update and offer my thoughts on what I predict will happen.