Five Weeks Out

We're five weeks away from Election Day. Every Monday from now until the election, I will be sharing the state of the race and the Electoral College outlook.

As the race stands now nationally, President Barack Obama holds a 3.8 point lead against Mitt Romney according to polling averages from Real Clear Politics. Here is a look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if the election were held now.

Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina are toss-ups. (More on each state classification below.) Here is another look at a map of how the Electoral College would be predicted to look if there election were held now--without any toss-ups.

In this scenario, Obama is re-elected in an Electoral College landslide 347-191. (In 2008, Obama beat Sen. John McCain by a margin of 365-173.)

Here's a breakdown of each rating--

Dark Blue/Dark Red: Safe Obama/Safe Romney - These races are a foregone conclusion. The candidates should win these races by a wide margin.

Blue/Red: Likely Obama/Likely Romney - These races show a pretty solid lead for one candidate or the other. It's not out of the realm of possibility for the other candidate to win in these states, but it's unlikely. (*Also included in the "likely" states are those with insufficient polling data. States that are not typically competitive often are not polled by pollsters. But, because of historical data, demographics, etc. experts can predict which way these states will sway. A list of these states can be found below.)

Light Blue/Light Red: Lean Obama/Lean Romney - These races show a lead for one candidate or another typically just outside the margin of error.  It's a slight lead, but enough to not be considered a toss-up. Most of these states are still considered pretty competitive and have the potential to be swayed in the opposite direction.

Gray: Toss-up - These states show a tie or a statistically insignificant margin of victory for one candidate or another. These races are currently the most competitive states.

*States with insufficient polling data: AL, AK, AR, DE, DC, HI, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, MS, NE, ND, OK, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, WY

**The three toss-up states of Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina all currently show President Obama with a slight lead, so they are shown as "Lean Obama" in the map with no toss-ups.